A Conservative Bet

Good call, initiate.

It's not uncommon for gamblers to talk about someone having a "hot hand" or some quality that makes them likely to win. They believe that if an individual has won several times in a row, then they are likely to continue winning. This fallacy is so common among gamblers, that is has been named The Hot Hand Fallacy. The Hot Hand Fallacy is like the opposite of the Gambler's Fallacy. According to Ayton & Fischer (2004), The Hot Hand Fallacy arises in situations where each outcome of an event (like a hand in blackjack) is random. People who fall victim to this fallacy are under the impression that, like in the Gambler's Fallacy, the results of the previous trials will effect the next ones. The difference is that, unlike in the Gambler's Fallacy, they believe that the results of the current event will be similar, rather than different, from previous events.

You knew that there was no reason to believe that just because previous hands had gone well, the next one would follow suite. After you inform Gamble of this, he thanks you for your counsel and makes a modest wager. When the dealer's hand comes up blackjack, causing Gamble to lose instantly, he is revealed to have only lost a small portion of his winnings. Feeling good about the results of the game, Gamble decides to cash out. Unfortunately, Gamble is feeling so good, that he decides to make his way to the slot machines.

One more task, initiate. We know you won't disappoint us.

Lose Slots and Looser Logic