The Large Bet

Sorry, initiate, but that was not the right call.

It's not uncommon for gamblers to talk about someone having a "hot hand" or some quality that makes them likely to win. They believe that if an individual has won several times in a row, then they are likely to continue winning. This fallacy is so common among gamblers, that is has been named The Hot Hand Fallacy. The Hot Hand Fallacy is like the opposite of the Gambler's Fallacy. According to Ayton & Fischer (2004), The Hot Hand Fallacy arises in situations where each outcome of an event (like a hand in blackjack) is random. People who fall victim to this fallacy are under the impression that, like in the Gambler's Fallacy, the results of the previous trials will effect the next ones. The difference is that, unlike in the Gambler's Fallacy, they believe that the results of the current event will be similar, rather than different, from previous events.

Acting on your advice, Gamble placed a very large bet before the start of the hand, fully expecting to win. To Gamble's shock, the dealer revealed that she had blackjack, meaning that Gamble immediately lost the hand. Maybe if you had pointed out Gamble's thinking errors to him, this unfortunate incident could've been avoided. Unfortunately, Gamble's funds now running low, and he is starting to doubt our society's integrity. To make matters worse, Gamble seems to be headed towards the slots.

One last chance, initiate. Don't mess this up.

Lose Slots and Looser Logic.